As 2025 begins, you may have set new resolutions, including the decision to sell your home. If that’s the case, you’ll want to ensure that the upcoming months are favourable for achieving this goal before moving forward.
Should you sell your house in 2025? To help you make an informed decision, we’ll highlight the key trends to watch for this year, along with a review of important events from 2024.
2024: A year of transition for the Quebec real estate market
After a challenging 2023, which saw a significant rise in mortgage rates and a record decline in housing starts, 2024 proved to be more promising. Starting with a period of stabilization, the market quickly experiences a resurgence in activity.
Interest rates decline after a period of stabilization
The second half of 2024 was notably shaped by the decline in the Bank of Canada's key interest rate. After reaching 5% in July 2023, the rate remained at this high level for several months, leading to a slowdown in real estate transactions across much of Quebec.
However, the long-awaited reduction began in early June 2024, with five consecutive rate cuts throughout the year, bringing the target rate down to 3.25% by December.
These rate reductions had a significant impact on the mortgage market. Several financial institutions lowered their interest rates, which helped restore confidence among buyers and sparked an uptick in sales.
Strong comeback in sales
In 2024, residential property sales experienced a significant rebound compared to the previous year. Although the start of the year was somewhat slower, real estate transactions quickly gained momentum, with the final months being among the most active recorded for this period.
In fact, during October and November 2024, the Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Québec (APCIQ) reported a 44% increase in sales activity for the Montreal CMA compared to the same months in 2023, followed by a 47% jump in November.
A similar trend was observed in the Quebec CMA, which saw a 23% increase in October and a 46% rise in November compared to the previous year.
Prices continue to rise
Despite a slight dip in demand at the beginning of the year, the median price of properties across all categories continued to climb, driven by limited inventory and the broader economic context.
In the third quarter of 2024, the median price of single-family homes saw a 7% year-over-year increase, reaching $448,550 province-wide. The prices of condominiums and duplexes also rose by 4% and 10%, respectively, reaching $379,250 and $583,000 during the same period.
The Quebec region experienced some of the most significant price increases, largely due to the overheating of the local market. In November 2024, the median price of a single-family home exceeded $400,000 for the second consecutive month, reaching $406,000, an impressive 12% increase compared to November 2023.
Slight increase in properties on the market
The year 2024 also saw an increase in the number of properties available on the market compared to previous years. In the third quarter, the APCIQ recorded a total of 36,824 active listings in Quebec, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
However, it's important to note that this increase still falls well below the historical average, indicating that inventory remains relatively tight.
Will 2025 be a favourable year for sellers?
Current trends and forecasts for the Quebec real estate market suggest that 2025 will be a promising year for sellers. While sellers may not have the same significant advantage as during the pandemic years, several factors could still work in their favour.
Return of demand and buyers to the market
Driven by interest rate reductions, buyers have returned to the real estate market in full force. Those who had postponed their purchasing decisions, waiting for more favourable conditions, are now ready to act.
If current trends continue, market activity is expected to keep growing, resulting in increased competition among buyers. Homeowners who list their properties may find themselves receiving multiple attractive offers within a reasonable timeframe.
However, it’s important to note that transaction levels are not expected to reach the overheated highs seen during the pandemic years, which were truly exceptional.
Will property prices continue to rise in 2025?
It is highly likely that property prices will continue to rise in 2025, driven by several social and economic factors fuelling this trend:
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Increased demand
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Lower interest rates
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Still limited inventory
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A crowded and expensive rental market, among others.
Some experts suggest that home prices might even reach the peaks seen in 2022 and potentially set new records by next year.
However, this prediction should be taken with caution, as opinions on the matter vary. According to forecasts from Royal LePage, home prices in the province could increase by 7%, while Proprio Direct expects the rise to be more modest, at around 3%.
While it’s impossible to predict with absolute certainty what the future holds, 2025 promises to be an interesting year for homeowners looking to sell and secure a strong selling price.
Increased inventory, but still limited
The growth in new listings observed in 2024 could carry over into 2025, especially with the many mortgage renewals expected in the coming months. This trend may result in an increase in available properties, but inventory will likely remain relatively limited.
If this continues, sellers might face more competition. Depending on local market conditions, they may need to adjust their marketing strategies to make their properties stand out from similar listings.
Overall, the market will still be favourable for sellers, with inventory likely remaining below the levels that would constitute a balanced market.
Mortgage renewals: a factor to watch
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 85% of Canadian borrowers renewing their mortgages in 2025 secured their loans at much lower rates when the key interest rate was at or below 1%. As these borrowers renew, they will face significantly higher rates than they did previously.
Given the rise in bad debts in recent months, this could lead to a financial strain for many households already struggling to manage their finances. If these homeowners are unable to absorb the higher payments, some may be forced to sell their properties, which would increase the number of homes available on the market. This is a factor to watch closely, as it could influence overall market conditions.
Higher capital gains tax on sales
Starting in June 2024, the increase in capital gains taxation could discourage homeowners looking to sell properties that are not their primary residence.
Previously taxed at 50%, capital gains are now taxed at 66.67% on profits exceeding $250,000. As a result, homeowners looking to sell a house, cottage, or income property that has appreciated significantly since purchase will face a higher tax burden on their profits.
This change could lead some homeowners to reconsider their decision to sell or explore strategies to reduce the tax impact.
However, it’s important to note that primary residences are exempt from this taxation, meaning homeowners selling their primary home will not face this additional financial penalty.
The benefits of selling your home this year
2025 presents an excellent opportunity to sell your property for the following reasons:
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A market still favourable to sellers: although inventory has slightly increased, supply remains insufficient to meet demand, continuing to favour sellers.
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Maximizing profits: with price growth forecast suggesting higher values, selling your property could allow you to achieve a better price, especially if it’s located in a high-demand area.
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Motivated buyers: interest rate reductions are encouraging buyers, many of whom are eager to secure a deal before the market tightens again.
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Unattractive rental market: rising rents and shortage of available rental properties make ownership more appealing to some households, driving up demand for properties for sale.
Reasons to delay your project
There are several personal reasons why you might consider postponing the sale of your home, including:
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Necessary repairs: if your home requires significant renovations, waiting to complete them could increase its value, helping you achieve a higher sale price when you're ready to sell.
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Increased tax impact: if the higher capital gains tax applies to your property, you may want to delay the sale or consult with a tax expert to develop a strategy that minimizes the tax impact.
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Difficulty relocating: if the higher capital gains tax applies to your property, you may want to delay the sale or consult with a tax expert to develop a strategy that minimizes the tax impact.
Tips to optimize the sale of your property in 2025
1. Collaborate with an experienced real estate agent to help increase your property’s visibility on the market.
2. Highlight your property’s features to capture the attention of buyers.
3. Set a competitive price that reflects market conditions to attract serious buyers.
4. Choose the right time to launch your sale. Listing your property in the spring, for example, can maximize exposure.
5. Anticipate the needs of buyers to meet their expectations and increase your chances of selling quickly.
Are you looking to sell your property?
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